When War Abroad Reaches the Farm

A war does not have to take place on a country's territory to affect its farmers. The recent conflict in West Asia illustrates how geopolitical instability can travel through shipping routes, commodity markets and supply chains before eventually reaching sectors far removed from the battlefield, including agriculture in India.

During the Monsoon Session of 2026, an unstarred question was raised through the Lok Sabha (the lower house of the Indian Parliament) regarding the Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Fertilizer Imports. The question asked whether the West Asia conflict had disrupted India’s imports of fertilizers and important raw materials and, if this happened, what steps were taken by the Government. More queries were raised regarding agricultural production, and how it could possibly be affected due to the prolonged disruption.

Fertilizers are essential for agriculture, but producing and importing them depends on several raw materials and international supply chains. According to the Government’s response, the West Asia conflict during 2025–26 disrupted global fertilizer supply chains, resulting in higher freight and insurance costs, delays in shipments and fluctuations in prices.

India's imports of ammonia, phosphoric acid and sulphur were particularly affected, while the cost of imported potash also increased because of global logistics disruptions. The Department of Fertilizers bulletin also recorded significant year-on-year increases in international prices of DAP (Diammonium Phosphate), phosphoric acid and sulphur.

Did India Face Fertilizer Supply Disruptions?

The government stated that fertilizer availability in the country remained largely adequate, mainly because of diversified sourcing and government intervention.

The Government also provided figures for the ongoing Kharif 2026 season: between 1 April and 19 October 2026, availability was higher than the stated requirement for urea, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), Muriate of Potash (MOP) and Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium-Sulphur (NPKS) fertilizers. For example, the requirement for urea was 109.40 lakh metric tonnes while availability was 163.78 lakh metric tonnes; however, adequate stocks today do not eliminate the risk of future disruptions if geopolitical tensions persist.

How did India respond?

India adopted several measures to reduce the impact of disruptions on its fertilizer supply chain:

• The government diversified fertilizer import sources to reduce dependence on a limited number of suppliers.
• Long-term agreements with overseas suppliers were facilitated to improve supply security.
• Indian fertilizer companies undertook collective procurement of fertilizers and raw materials, including ammonia and sulphur.
• The government continued to monitor state-wise and month-wise fertilizer requirements through supply plans and the Integrated Fertilizer Management System (iFMS).

These measures helped maintain adequate fertilizer availability despite disruptions in international markets.

Diversifying Beyond the Conflict

The disruption also highlighted the importance of diversifying India’s fertilizer supply chains. Four ships carrying urea, DAP and sulphur recently crossed the Strait of Hormuz en route to Indian ports, illustrating the importance of secure maritime routes for fertilizer supplies. In the post-conflict scenario, India strengthened sourcing from multiple countries rather than relying on a limited number of suppliers; fertilizer companies entered into long-term arrangements and explored alternative sources for both finished fertilizers and critical raw materials such as ammonia, phosphoric acid, sulphur and rock phosphate. Supplies were sourced or pursued from countries including Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Russia, Jordan, Canada, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Algeria, Egypt, Finland and Togo. This wider sourcing network reduces the risk that disruption in one country or trade route will immediately translate into a domestic supply crisis.

The diversification is significant because India’s vulnerability does not arise only from importing finished fertilizers. Domestic fertilizer production itself depends on internationally sourced raw materials and energy inputs. India’s response has therefore increasingly focused on diversifying suppliers, securing long-term contracts, maintaining adequate stocks and strengthening domestic production. Simultaneously, the objective is not to eliminate international dependence, which is difficult in an interconnected global economy, but to ensure that dependence on external markets does not become dependence on any single supplier or geopolitical corridor.

The issue goes beyond agriculture

The effects of supply-chain disruptions extend beyond agriculture to industrial chemicals and raw materials used in pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, water treatment and manufacturing. The government identified temporary shortages and price increases involving Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA), ammonia and methanol, which are important inputs for several industries. This highlights how a disruption in one part of the international supply chain can affect multiple sectors simultaneously, making supply-chain resilience an important part of wider economic security.

This is where the fertilizer question becomes an International Relations issue: economic interdependence can create geopolitical vulnerability. Conflict in one part of the world can disrupt trade and affect countries far beyond the conflict zone. For India, fertilizer security therefore becomes part of an economic and national security issue. The goal here, however, is not complete self-sufficiency but how to manage external dependencies through diversification and resilience.

The Bigger Challenge: Dependence vs. Resilience

India cannot be completely self-sufficient; producing everything within the country is not always possible or affordable, especially when domestic production itself depends on raw materials, energy and supplies from other countries. The bigger challenge, therefore, is not to choose between dependence and self-reliance but to become more resilient while managing dependence.

India needs to be prepared for situations where wars, political tensions or disruptions affect global trade and supply chains. The West Asia conflict shows that energy security is closely connected to geopolitics. India may not be directly involved in a conflict, but its farmers, industries and consumers can still feel its effects.

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References

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